UK power market

UK power: will next winter be a repeat of this one? | 13 Feb, 2017

The UK power market entered this winter with the tightest system reserve margin since market liberalisation in the 1990s. The reserve margin has falle ...

Interconnector value & the cross-channel tug of war | 06 Feb, 2017

It has been an explosive winter in North West European power markets.  Elevated prices, spikes and volatility have suddenly returned, in stark contra ...

UK capacity market surprises again | 09 Jan, 2017

The UK capacity market continues to deliver surprises.  Large scale CCGT plants were expected to provide most of the new capacity in the third T-4 au ...

Revisiting our 5 surprises for 2016 | 12 Dec, 2016

‘We are fairly confident of one thing.  2016 will not be a dull year.’ This was our concluding statement from an article published on the Feb ...

The UK’s battle for new capacity: peakers vs CCGTs | 31 Oct, 2016

An aggressive government capacity target in the Dec 2016 UK capacity auction is fuelling an intense battle to deliver new power plants.  As much as 5 ...

Long term contracting to support asset financing | 24 Oct, 2016

Infrastructure investors are set to feature as prominent buyers of conventional supply assets, as utilities ramp up asset sales in Europe. European ut ...

The impact of rising coal prices | 17 Oct, 2016

2016 has delivered its fair share of commodity market surprises. But none have been more unexpected than the sharp recovery in coal prices.  European ...

The impact of declining offshore wind costs | 19 Sep, 2016

Competition between European utilities to deliver offshore wind projects is hotting up as companies refocus their business models towards renewable ge ...

UK CCGT margins take off, coal plants bleed | 12 Sep, 2016

Some important structural changes are taking place in the UK power market supply stack.  2016 has seen a pronounced shift in favour of gas-fired gene ...

Utility asset sales: where are the value opportunities? | 18 Jul, 2016

The article below is our last before the summer break.  We will be back with more in late August. Three weeks ago we set out the case for an unpre ...

UK coal plants & security of supply | 11 Jul, 2016

The UK government announced in November 2015 that all UK coal plants would be closed by 2025. This was a logical decision in the context of UK emissio ...

Brexit impact on European energy markets | 04 Jul, 2016

The Brexit ‘Leave’ vote was a genuine market shock.  On the day of the referendum, markets were pricing in a more than 80% chance that the ‘Rem ...

European utility asset sales are ramping up | 20 Jun, 2016

European utilities have taken a battering so far this decade. Most utilities are suffering balance sheet hangovers from a pre financial crisis spate o ...

Has the 2016 commodity price recovery got legs? | 13 Jun, 2016

Crude oil has doubled in price since February.  The rally in oil has coincided with a broader recovery in global commodity prices including coal.  H ...

Gas vs coal switching in Europe: key markets | 30 May, 2016

The displacement of coal plant by gas plant is one of the key current focus issues in the European energy industry.  A sharp decline in coal prices f ...

A revival in contracting of flexible assets | 21 Mar, 2016

Long term contracts are a cornerstone of the energy industry. They play a key role in underpinning the capital expenditure required to develop assets. ...

Fixing the UK’s broken capacity market? | 14 Mar, 2016

What do you do if you design a capacity market that doesn’t work? Try, try again. The imminent threat of large volumes of coal plant closures has se ...

Underestimating small scale peakers | 22 Feb, 2016

The UK government has issued fresh denials of an imminent capacity crunch this month.  This has been prompted by closure announcements for another 2. ...

Dark spreads spell the death of UK coal plants | 08 Feb, 2016

Falling gas prices over the last year have decimated UK coal plant generation margins. In the UK, coal plants are hostage to CCGTs when it comes to se ...

Five market surprises for 2016 | 01 Feb, 2016

If January is any indication, 2016 is not going to be a boring year for energy markets.  So far this year European spot gas prices have slumped towar ...

The UK’s dual capacity markets | 04 Jan, 2016

There is an acute and increasing capacity shortage in the UK power market caused by the retirement of older gas and coal plants. This is being driven ...

Last week’s UK power price spike | 09 Nov, 2015

The tightening UK system capacity margin has been a theme of this blog over the last 4 years. This manifested itself last Wednesday in a period of mag ...

UK capacity price may clear in single digits | 02 Nov, 2015

The system reserve margin in the UK power market is at an unprecedented level of tightness coming into the second capacity market auction in December. ...

The UK CCGT new build challenge | 19 Oct, 2015

Carlton Power was the only bidder in the UK's first power market capacity auction that secured a capacity agreement to build a new CCGT (in Dec 2014). ...

UK spark and dark spreads in animation | 07 Sep, 2015

The evolution of generation margins for gas and coal fired power plants are having wide reaching implications across European gas and power markets th ...