UK gas market

Power sector switching, gas hub prices & volatility | 20 Mar, 2017

In early 2016, the idea of a significant recovery in CCGT load factors at the expense of coal plants was treated with a degree of scepticism. CCGT loa ...

US export flows, the supply glut and Europe | 13 Mar, 2017

The Sabine Pass terminal exported its first cargo in Feb 2016.  This marked the start of a new era of US gas exports, an almost unthinkable developme ...

Relative pricing dynamics driving European gas hubs | 27 Feb, 2017

A number of interesting dynamics have emerged in the European gas market over the last twelve months. On the supply side, relatively low LNG import ...

The impact of LNG imports on hub price volatility | 23 Jan, 2017

After 5 tough years, a glimmer of hope emerged for gas storage operators in 2016. Spot price volatility at European hubs started to show signs of a mo ...

Progressing up the mountain of LNG | 16 Jan, 2017

The LNG market is in the earlier stages of an unprecedented ramp up in supply. Global liquefaction capacity is set to rise by more than 50% by 2022. 2 ...

Revisiting our 5 surprises for 2016 | 12 Dec, 2016

‘We are fairly confident of one thing.  2016 will not be a dull year.’ This was our concluding statement from an article published on the Feb ...

Volatility has a gas price anchor | 05 Dec, 2016

European spot gas price volatility has been in structural decline since the middle of last decade.   Volatility levels above 200% in the UK gas mark ...

Global gas price convergence: state of play | 28 Nov, 2016

A cold start to the northern winter is breathing some life back into global gas prices. There has been some excitement this month as Asian spot LNG pr ...

Long term contracting to support asset financing | 24 Oct, 2016

Infrastructure investors are set to feature as prominent buyers of conventional supply assets, as utilities ramp up asset sales in Europe. European ut ...

The impact of rising coal prices | 17 Oct, 2016

2016 has delivered its fair share of commodity market surprises. But none have been more unexpected than the sharp recovery in coal prices.  European ...

Gas rebalancing 2: the path to price recovery | 10 Oct, 2016

The first half of this decade saw an LNG investment boom.  High gas prices and optimistic Asian demand projections supported a flood of Financial Inv ...

Gas rebalancing 1: Clearing the global gas glut | 03 Oct, 2016

The global gas market has been shocked by the pace and scale of transition from boom to bust. At the beginning of 2014 suppliers were paying a lofty 2 ...

Evidence of a 2016 recovery in gas price volatility | 26 Sep, 2016

Prompt gas price volatility is the key market price signal for short term supply flexibility response.  Volatility plays a key role in determining th ...

Rough storage issues remain a structural threat | 29 Aug, 2016

The UK gas market was hit by a major shock in July in the form of an extended outage at its largest gas storage facility. The immediate impact of Cent ...

Utility asset sales: where are the value opportunities? | 18 Jul, 2016

The article below is our last before the summer break.  We will be back with more in late August. Three weeks ago we set out the case for an unpre ...

Brexit impact on European energy markets | 04 Jul, 2016

The Brexit ‘Leave’ vote was a genuine market shock.  On the day of the referendum, markets were pricing in a more than 80% chance that the ‘Rem ...

LNG imports & European gas pricing dynamics | 27 Jun, 2016

The role of LNG imports into Europe is changing as the result of an oversupplied global gas market. Higher LNG flows into Europe are set to erode the ...

European utility asset sales are ramping up | 20 Jun, 2016

European utilities have taken a battering so far this decade. Most utilities are suffering balance sheet hangovers from a pre financial crisis spate o ...

Has the 2016 commodity price recovery got legs? | 13 Jun, 2016

Crude oil has doubled in price since February.  The rally in oil has coincided with a broader recovery in global commodity prices including coal.  H ...

Gas vs coal switching in Europe: numerical analysis | 06 Jun, 2016

Over the 2016-19 period, LNG liquefaction capacity under construction is set to increase global LNG supply by approximately 150 bcma. Current rates of ...

Gas vs coal switching in Europe: key markets | 30 May, 2016

The displacement of coal plant by gas plant is one of the key current focus issues in the European energy industry.  A sharp decline in coal prices f ...

US exports and the trans-Atlantic cost question | 16 May, 2016

The costs of moving LNG from the US to Europe was one of the key focus points at last week’s Flame conference.  A number of divergent views were pr ...

What does Henry Hub convergence mean? | 09 May, 2016

Prices at the UK NBP and US Henry Hub converged completely during the last global supply glut in 2009-10. This was a simple consequence of global over ...

Anatomy of a spring short squeeze | 02 May, 2016

Last week saw some extreme swings in European gas hub prices. The combination of an early spring cold snap and North Sea supply outages caused the NBP ...

European gas market: current supply & demand balance | 25 Apr, 2016

The next two years are set to be an important period of transition for the European gas market. LNG imports are increasing as Europe adapts to its ro ...