price volatility

Power sector switching, gas hub prices & volatility | 20 Mar, 2017

In early 2016, the idea of a significant recovery in CCGT load factors at the expense of coal plants was treated with a degree of scepticism. CCGT loa ...

Winter LNG spot price volatility | 20 Feb, 2017

Global LNG spot prices have been relatively subdued over the past two winters.  Increases in global liquefaction capacity and weaker demand have kept ...

Interconnector value & the cross-channel tug of war | 06 Feb, 2017

It has been an explosive winter in North West European power markets.  Elevated prices, spikes and volatility have suddenly returned, in stark contra ...

The impact of LNG imports on hub price volatility | 23 Jan, 2017

After 5 tough years, a glimmer of hope emerged for gas storage operators in 2016. Spot price volatility at European hubs started to show signs of a mo ...

Volatility has a gas price anchor | 05 Dec, 2016

European spot gas price volatility has been in structural decline since the middle of last decade.   Volatility levels above 200% in the UK gas mark ...

Evidence of a 2016 recovery in gas price volatility | 26 Sep, 2016

Prompt gas price volatility is the key market price signal for short term supply flexibility response.  Volatility plays a key role in determining th ...

Anatomy of a spring short squeeze | 02 May, 2016

Last week saw some extreme swings in European gas hub prices. The combination of an early spring cold snap and North Sea supply outages caused the NBP ...

Rising CCGT load factors and gas volatility | 07 Mar, 2016

The sharp decline in gas hub prices in 2016 is starting to reshape the landscape for flexible supply infrastructure in European gas and power markets. ...

Brent crash in animation (Part II) | 29 Feb, 2016

The wild ride continues in the crude market. Brent plunged below 30 $/bbl earlier this month as resilient production and inventory build spooked the m ...

Commodity price perspective: a 3 chart view | 30 Nov, 2015

A seismic shift in commodity markets began in Q4 2014. From an energy market perspective this was focused on crude oil breaking out of its trading ran ...

Implied vs historical gas price volatility | 16 Nov, 2015

European gas hub markets are maturing. This can be seen via the increase in range and liquidity of traded products. Growth in trading activity is focu ...

Gas flex case study: the impact of losing Rough storage | 28 Sep, 2015

Investment in gas supply flexibility is supported by two key market price signals. Summer/winter price spreads drive investment in seasonal flexibilit ...

The next leg down in commodity prices | 31 Aug, 2015

It has not been a peaceful summer in global commodity markets. After a six month period of consolidation, July saw a renewed broad based decline in co ...

Gas volatility & investment in deliverability | 20 Jul, 2015

The article below is our last before the summer break.  We will be back with more in late August. There are two key structural trends in play that ...

Look to the USD for oil price direction | 25 May, 2015

The decline in crude prices that started last summer has been one of the sharpest selloffs in the history of the oil market. After stabilising towards ...

UK gas storage capacity restrictions | 07 Apr, 2015

It is almost a decade since a fire at Centrica’s Rough storage site sent shock waves through the UK gas market.  Market infrastructure has evolved ...

Monetising the value of flexible gas & power assets | 09 Mar, 2015

Flexibility value is a term often loosely used in association with gas and power asset optionality. It is a simple and widely accepted principle that ...

Market benchmark for gas flexibility value | 09 Feb, 2015

After a recovery in the first half of 2014, seasonal price spreads at European hubs have again fallen back towards historically low levels (currently ...

Brent curve collapse in animation | 02 Feb, 2015

The Brent crude forward curve had a wild ride across 2008 and 2009.  The commodity supercycle peak dragged spot crude towards 150 $/bbl, with forward ...

Supply side response to lower crude | 26 Jan, 2015

This is the second article in a three part series on falling crude prices.  In the first two of these articles we look at the two key factors behind ...

Crude is not alone as it plunges into 2015 | 19 Jan, 2015

The plunging price of crude oil is the big story of the energy industry in 2015 so far.  The impact of this seismic shift in the pricing of hydrocarb ...

Spot vs forward price dynamics: UK gas case study | 17 Nov, 2014

Commodity markets are plagued by confusion as to the relationship between spot and forward prices.  There are good reasons.  The relationship is not ...

UK power crunch risk remains | 15 Sep, 2014

The threat of a mid-decade capacity crunch in the UK power market made national headlines in 2013. Concern around this threat has diminished noticeabl ...

Why the UK will need fast cycle storage | 08 Sep, 2014

The UK gas market is undergoing two major long term structural shifts. UK import dependency is increasing as domestic gas production declines.  At th ...

Unique energy risk management characteristics | 07 Apr, 2014

This is the second in a series of articles on the principles of energy risk management, written by Nick Perry. In the previous article we considered ...