oil market

Revisiting our 5 surprises for 2016 | 12 Dec, 2016

‘We are fairly confident of one thing.  2016 will not be a dull year.’ This was our concluding statement from an article published on the Feb ...

Has the 2016 commodity price recovery got legs? | 13 Jun, 2016

Crude oil has doubled in price since February.  The rally in oil has coincided with a broader recovery in global commodity prices including coal.  H ...

Brent crash in animation (Part II) | 29 Feb, 2016

The wild ride continues in the crude market. Brent plunged below 30 $/bbl earlier this month as resilient production and inventory build spooked the m ...

Five market surprises for 2016 | 01 Feb, 2016

If January is any indication, 2016 is not going to be a boring year for energy markets.  So far this year European spot gas prices have slumped towar ...

Hub pricing in a converging global gas market | 07 Dec, 2015

There has been a pronounced downward revision of future price expectations across the global gas market as 2015 has evolved. This has been reinforced ...

Commodity price perspective: a 3 chart view | 30 Nov, 2015

A seismic shift in commodity markets began in Q4 2014. From an energy market perspective this was focused on crude oil breaking out of its trading ran ...

Global gas price evolution: 5 key drivers | 26 Oct, 2015

The global gas market has been turned on its head over the last 18 months. In Q1 last year, Asian spot LNG prices were breaking records with the Platt ...

Structural transition in gas prices | 14 Sep, 2015

A sharp slump in spot gas prices last summer marked the start of a new phase of global gas pricing.  This summer the gas market has been relatively q ...

Oil market illustrates risks of relying on price forecasts | 15 Jun, 2015

Commodity price forecasts are widely used across energy markets. Forecasts are used as an input for a range of commercial activities including busines ...

Look to the USD for oil price direction | 25 May, 2015

The decline in crude prices that started last summer has been one of the sharpest selloffs in the history of the oil market. After stabilising towards ...

Brent curve collapse in animation | 02 Feb, 2015

The Brent crude forward curve had a wild ride across 2008 and 2009.  The commodity supercycle peak dragged spot crude towards 150 $/bbl, with forward ...

Supply side response to lower crude | 26 Jan, 2015

This is the second article in a three part series on falling crude prices.  In the first two of these articles we look at the two key factors behind ...

Crude is not alone as it plunges into 2015 | 19 Jan, 2015

The plunging price of crude oil is the big story of the energy industry in 2015 so far.  The impact of this seismic shift in the pricing of hydrocarb ...

Market interconnectivity and the next 6 months | 01 Dec, 2014

The term 'big price move' is used too liberally in relation to energy markets which have a relatively high level of ambient volatility.  But last wee ...

Oil and coal pricing back in focus | 13 Oct, 2014

This blog is focused on gas and power markets.  But every few months we take a step back and look at the impact of the broader commodity market envir ...

Unique energy risk management characteristics | 07 Apr, 2014

This is the second in a series of articles on the principles of energy risk management, written by Nick Perry. In the previous article we considere ...

Early warning signs of an emerging markets problem? | 03 Feb, 2014

In our last article of 2013 we posed a question around the vulnerability of energy markets to an economic shock.  We specifically considered the case ...

2013: Study the past if you would define the future | 09 Dec, 2013

With Christmas rapidly approaching this is the last blog article for 2013.  We will be back next year on the 6th January.  But to finish off this ye ...

Controlling an addiction to cheap money | 01 Jul, 2013

The importance of central bank monetary policy in driving commodity markets has been a key theme of this blog.  Since the onset of the financial cris ...

A commodity market perspective in 3 charts | 29 Oct, 2012

One of the themes of this blog has been the increasing importance of global commodity markets in driving pricing and value in European power and gas m ...

Intervention and commodity markets | 17 Sep, 2012

For the last 12 months, the dominant price trend in European power and gas markets has been downwards as global commodity prices have declined and Eur ...

RWE: Anatomy of a gas portfolio | 16 Jul, 2012

The gap between gas hub and oil indexed contract prices has been a key factor driving the evolution of the European gas market over the last five year ...

Global gas price snapshot July 2012 | 09 Jul, 2012

Every six months we have been reviewing developments in global gas market pricing dynamics.   Since we last did this in January, factors driving reg ...

Timera Energy’s 2011 review | 12 Dec, 2011

A year in review The season of long lunches, last minute shopping and visits from the in-laws is upon us again.  As a result this will be our last p ...

The downside risks to energy markets have intensified | 10 Oct, 2011

Will 2011 be a turning point for global energy markets? 2011 has been dominated by concerns about the impact of tightness in global energy markets on ...