Continental power market

Power sector switching, gas hub prices & volatility | 20 Mar, 2017

In early 2016, the idea of a significant recovery in CCGT load factors at the expense of coal plants was treated with a degree of scepticism. CCGT loa ...

Interconnector value & the cross-channel tug of war | 06 Feb, 2017

It has been an explosive winter in North West European power markets.  Elevated prices, spikes and volatility have suddenly returned, in stark contra ...

UK capacity market surprises again | 09 Jan, 2017

The UK capacity market continues to deliver surprises.  Large scale CCGT plants were expected to provide most of the new capacity in the third T-4 au ...

Revisiting our 5 surprises for 2016 | 12 Dec, 2016

‘We are fairly confident of one thing.  2016 will not be a dull year.’ This was our concluding statement from an article published on the Feb ...

Long term contracting to support asset financing | 24 Oct, 2016

Infrastructure investors are set to feature as prominent buyers of conventional supply assets, as utilities ramp up asset sales in Europe. European ut ...

The impact of rising coal prices | 17 Oct, 2016

2016 has delivered its fair share of commodity market surprises. But none have been more unexpected than the sharp recovery in coal prices.  European ...

The impact of declining offshore wind costs | 19 Sep, 2016

Competition between European utilities to deliver offshore wind projects is hotting up as companies refocus their business models towards renewable ge ...

UK CCGT margins take off, coal plants bleed | 12 Sep, 2016

Some important structural changes are taking place in the UK power market supply stack.  2016 has seen a pronounced shift in favour of gas-fired gene ...

Continental generation margins: Gas is back | 05 Sep, 2016

‘Positive baseload generation margins for German CCGTs?  That’s not possible!’ Exclamations such as this have echoed across European power m ...

French Carbon Price Floor | 22 Aug, 2016

As the European carbon price continues to languish below 5 €/t, France has decided to take action. The French government announced in April that it ...

Utility asset sales: where are the value opportunities? | 18 Jul, 2016

The article below is our last before the summer break.  We will be back with more in late August. Three weeks ago we set out the case for an unpre ...

European utility asset sales are ramping up | 20 Jun, 2016

European utilities have taken a battering so far this decade. Most utilities are suffering balance sheet hangovers from a pre financial crisis spate o ...

Has the 2016 commodity price recovery got legs? | 13 Jun, 2016

Crude oil has doubled in price since February.  The rally in oil has coincided with a broader recovery in global commodity prices including coal.  H ...

Gas vs coal switching in Europe: key markets | 30 May, 2016

The displacement of coal plant by gas plant is one of the key current focus issues in the European energy industry.  A sharp decline in coal prices f ...

A revival in contracting of flexible assets | 21 Mar, 2016

Long term contracts are a cornerstone of the energy industry. They play a key role in underpinning the capital expenditure required to develop assets. ...

Five market surprises for 2016 | 01 Feb, 2016

If January is any indication, 2016 is not going to be a boring year for energy markets.  So far this year European spot gas prices have slumped towar ...

UK capacity price may clear in single digits | 02 Nov, 2015

The system reserve margin in the UK power market is at an unprecedented level of tightness coming into the second capacity market auction in December. ...

Vattenfall’s German sale: mixing lignite & water | 21 Sep, 2015

Vattenfall is kicking-off a formal sales process to dispose of its lignite and pump storage hydro assets in Germany. The sale will result in a signifi ...

Gas volatility & investment in deliverability | 20 Jul, 2015

The article below is our last before the summer break.  We will be back with more in late August. There are two key structural trends in play that ...

European gas demand, LNG flow & hub prices | 13 Jul, 2015

Last week we explored the impact of weaker Chinese LNG demand on European hub prices. We set out a scenario that illustrated the impact of European hu ...

Electricity storage investment: path to commercialisation | 29 Jun, 2015

Battery storage technology costs have been declining at an impressive rate over the last 2 to 3 years. Interest in the investment growth potential for ...

Gas vs coal switching in Continental power markets | 18 May, 2015

Five years of coal price weakness has decimated the value of European gas-fired power plants. Spark spreads in Continental power markets have fallen i ...

Acquisitions and monetising asset value | 11 May, 2015

European energy asset transaction activity is on the rise. After ambitious but largely unsuccessful growth and acquisition sprees last decade, utiliti ...

Gas plant competiveness is increasing | 04 May, 2015

Over the last five years, European coal plants have developed a substantial variable cost advantage over gas plants. This has been driven by relative ...

The tipping point in the gas market | 13 Apr, 2015

The global gas market balance has swung from Asia back towards Europe as oversupply in the LNG market has taken hold. European hubs are providing key ...