commodity prices

5 surprises for 2017 | 30 Jan, 2017

Our list of surprises for 2016 focused on changing energy market price dynamics. In Q1 2016, cyclically depressed conditions in a number of markets su ...

Revisiting our 5 surprises for 2016 | 12 Dec, 2016

‘We are fairly confident of one thing.  2016 will not be a dull year.’ This was our concluding statement from an article published on the Feb ...

Keep an eye on the US dollar, yields and inflation | 21 Nov, 2016

The US dollar has surged since the election. The dollar index hit its highest level in over a decade last week suggesting that the next leg of the dol ...

Coal price dump and jump in animation | 07 Nov, 2016

Spot coal prices continue to surge around the world. As winter approaches, Pacific Basin steaming coal prices have broken above 100 $/tonne. Coking co ...

Has the 2016 commodity price recovery got legs? | 13 Jun, 2016

Crude oil has doubled in price since February.  The rally in oil has coincided with a broader recovery in global commodity prices including coal.  H ...

Brent crash in animation (Part II) | 29 Feb, 2016

The wild ride continues in the crude market. Brent plunged below 30 $/bbl earlier this month as resilient production and inventory build spooked the m ...

Five market surprises for 2016 | 01 Feb, 2016

If January is any indication, 2016 is not going to be a boring year for energy markets.  So far this year European spot gas prices have slumped towar ...

Commodity price perspective: a 3 chart view | 30 Nov, 2015

A seismic shift in commodity markets began in Q4 2014. From an energy market perspective this was focused on crude oil breaking out of its trading ran ...

Global gas price evolution: 5 key drivers | 26 Oct, 2015

The global gas market has been turned on its head over the last 18 months. In Q1 last year, Asian spot LNG prices were breaking records with the Platt ...

Defending energy portfolios against a credit event | 12 Oct, 2015

Last week we looked at the threat of a systemic credit event in energy markets. Market prices are flashing a warning signal about the capitalisation a ...

Watch out for a major credit event | 05 Oct, 2015

It is often said that when the tide goes out on commodity prices we find out who’s been swimming without shorts on. The market smells trouble brewin ...

UK spark and dark spreads in animation | 07 Sep, 2015

The evolution of generation margins for gas and coal fired power plants are having wide reaching implications across European gas and power markets th ...

The next leg down in commodity prices | 31 Aug, 2015

It has not been a peaceful summer in global commodity markets. After a six month period of consolidation, July saw a renewed broad based decline in co ...

Oil market illustrates risks of relying on price forecasts | 15 Jun, 2015

Commodity price forecasts are widely used across energy markets. Forecasts are used as an input for a range of commercial activities including busines ...

Look to the USD for oil price direction | 25 May, 2015

The decline in crude prices that started last summer has been one of the sharpest selloffs in the history of the oil market. After stabilising towards ...

The dangers of mixing forecasts and forward curves | 30 Mar, 2015

Forward market liquidity has steadily developed with the evolution of traded gas and power markets in Europe. This has supported traders and asset man ...

Falling fuel prices and thermal plant margins | 26 Mar, 2015

There have been some big moves in commodity prices and currencies so far in 2015.  Sharp declines in oil, gas and coal prices have reduced the fuel c ...

European hub prices under pressure in 2015 | 23 Feb, 2015

After several years of relative stability, the European gas market has entered a more dynamic transition phase. Spot prices at European hubs have face ...

Brent curve collapse in animation | 02 Feb, 2015

The Brent crude forward curve had a wild ride across 2008 and 2009.  The commodity supercycle peak dragged spot crude towards 150 $/bbl, with forward ...

Supply side response to lower crude | 26 Jan, 2015

This is the second article in a three part series on falling crude prices.  In the first two of these articles we look at the two key factors behind ...

Crude is not alone as it plunges into 2015 | 19 Jan, 2015

The plunging price of crude oil is the big story of the energy industry in 2015 so far.  The impact of this seismic shift in the pricing of hydrocarb ...

2014 themes and the way forward into 2015 | 08 Dec, 2014

With Christmas approaching this is our last article of 2014.  We will be back with more in early January.  To finish the year, it has become a bit o ...

Market interconnectivity and the next 6 months | 01 Dec, 2014

The term 'big price move' is used too liberally in relation to energy markets which have a relatively high level of ambient volatility.  But last wee ...

The next phase of global gas pricing | 22 Sep, 2014

Commodity markets are known for their rapid shifts in supply/demand balance and pricing dynamics. The global gas market is a great case study.  In th ...

A spring slump in spot gas prices | 19 May, 2014

It is ironic that the growing threat of Russian supply cuts has conincided with a sharp decline in European gas hub prices.  Prompt UK NBP prices hav ...