It is difficult to develop a view on evolution of the global LNG market over the next decade without a clear understanding of Chinese demand. As is often the case with China, the headline numbers are startling. If the penetration of gas increased by just 1% in China’s primary energy consumption (from 4 to 5%) it would mean an increase of approximately 27bcma of gas demand. If that volume were to be met by LNG alone, it would mean an increase in imports of 20MT per year. However the underlying drivers of Chinese demand are more complex. The volume and timing of China’s influence on global LNG demand is subject to considerable uncertainty given the complex interaction between a range of factors driving China’s import demand.
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